12/28/2023 0 Comments Unherd blue![]() This is what happens when you double down on liberals in a first-past-the-post system. Even if Labour were to overperform here, it still needs to find significant gains elsewhere. It is simply not big enough to bring down Boris Johnson’s majority. The Tories not only massively overperformed in these seats, they reshaped their party around a Leave vote that is more geographically efficient than the liberal vote: spread out enough to have more electoral impact.Īnd this is why I do not find the Blue Wall thesis convincing. While the Conservative vote increased by 1.2 points nationally, it surged by 10.2 points in the Red Wall. Of the 57 seats the Conservatives gained in 2019, all but three came directly from Labour - and of those 54 seats, 50 voted Leave. It is no secret that many of the people who write about politics also tend to be graduates who lean to the Left and want the pendulum to swing back in their direction. Many spent 2019 urging Labour to swing behind a second referendum, while downplaying the disastrous impact this would have in its heartlands and ignoring the fact that Johnson could easily offset losses to liberals by invading the Red Wall, where workers had been drifting away from Labour for 20 years. It is an appealing thesis, not least for political analysts who desperately want it to happen. ![]() On a good day, assuming a swing of between 3.75 and 5.75 points, and with Labour over-performing in these “Blue Wall” areas, Akehurst estimates that Labour could win anywhere between 15 and 26 of these seats. Assuming the Conservatives lost some other marginal seats, the collapse of the Blue Wall could demolish Boris Johnson’s majority, put Labour back in power and give journalists one hell of a revenge story. More likely to prioritise issues like climate or housing.” “They largely lean Remain”, writes Akehurst, “and so have larger numbers of the demographics that have turned against the Tories since 2016: under 40s, university educated, more socially liberal. Seats causing particular excitement include those of big-name Tories like Steve Baker in Wycombe, Iain Duncan Smith in Chingford and Wood Green, and Graham Brady in Altrincham – and even Uxbridge, Boris Johnson’s seat. In his insightful blog, political analyst Steve Akehurst identifies 41 seats which have been held by the Conservatives since at least 2010, where Labour or the Liberal Democrats have overperformed their national swing in 20 and where the Conservative majority is below 10,000. Try again later.Ĭannot load blog information at this time.Credit: Steve Akehurst / Strong Message Here Blog An error has occurred the feed is probably down.Security forces fired a shotgun at point-blank range at Abolfazl Adinezadeh, 17, sources say. EN DIRECT - Démission de Liz Truss : le nouveau premier ministre désigné d'ici au 28 octobre October 20, 2022.LJ How true those words are, even to-day! Tags Tags Tags…Īu grand café How many visitors do I have?įollow Lyndon Adonis Blue on Au bistrot, comme d’habitude! Le Figaro Read on /2020/04/which-epidemiologist-do-you-believe/īalanced and interesting, in contradistinction to the vapourings of various nutters out there. The debate about lockdown is not a contest between good and evil
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